Which party will win the NY-03 House race in 2026?

Democratic Party is at 90% and Republican Party at 11%, from Kalshi's prices.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Democratic PartyYes costs 90c90%
Republican PartyYes costs 11c11%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

What settles it.

Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Democratic Party.

Kalshi’s ruleDemocratic Party
If the House member sworn in for NY-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
The 2026 midterms, as Kalshi prices themControl of Congress and every Senate, governor and House race on one page, with when each market pays.

More election markets.

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EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.