Who will win the NY-01 House race in 2026?

Republican Party is at 80% and Democratic Party at 22%, from Kalshi's prices.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Republican PartyYes costs 80c80%
Democratic PartyYes costs 22c22%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

What settles it.

Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Republican Party.

Kalshi’s ruleRepublican Party
If the House member sworn in for NY-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
The 2026 midterms, as Kalshi prices themControl of Congress and every Senate, governor and House race on one page, with when each market pays.

More election markets.

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EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.