Closest Senate race in 2026
Kansas leads at 15%, followed by Iowa at 14% and Michigan at 13%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
KansasYes 15c · No 86c
15%IowaYes 14c · No 87c
14%MichiganYes 13c · No 88c
13%South CarolinaYes 10c · No 91c
10%TexasYes 8c · No 92c
8%AlaskaYes 8c · No 92c
8%MaineYes 8c · No 92c
8%NebraskaYes 7c · No 93c
7%OhioYes 7c · No 94c
7%FloridaYes 4c · No 97c
4%Show 10 more outcomes
MississippiYes 4c · No 97c
4%LouisianaYes 4c · No 97c
4%MontanaYes 3c · No 98c
3%MinnesotaYes 2c · No 98c
2%New HampshireYes 2c · No 99c
2%GeorgiaYes 1c
<1%North CarolinaYes 1c
<1%South DakotaYes 1c
<1%IdahoYes 1c
<1%ArkansasYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Kansas.
Kalshi’s ruleKansas
If Kansas has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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