Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
California, Texas and Florida lead at 99% each, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
CaliforniaNo 2c
99%TexasNo 2c
99%FloridaNo 2c
99%OhioNo 2c
99%TennesseeNo 2c
99%LouisianaNo 3c
99%North CarolinaNo 4c
98%MinnesotaYes 4c · No 99c
3%MarylandYes 4c
2%WashingtonYes 4c
2%Show 15 more outcomes
New YorkYes 3c
2%IndianaYes 3c
2%MississippiYes 3c
2%VirginiaYes 2c
1%MissouriYes 2c
1%South CarolinaYes 2c
1%UtahYes 2c
1%AlabamaYes 2c
1%GeorgiaYes 2c
1%IllinoisYes 2c
1%KansasYes 2c
1%WisconsinYes 2c
1%New JerseyYes 2c
1%ArizonaYes 2c
1%NebraskaYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for California.
Kalshi’s ruleCalifornia
If the California legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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