Balance of power in Congress after the 2026 midterms
D-House, D-Senate leads at 69%, followed by D-House, R-Senate at 27% and Republicans sweep at 6%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
D-House, D-SenateYes 69c · No 32c
69%D-House, R-SenateYes 27c · No 74c
27%Republicans sweepYes 6c · No 94c
6%R-House, D-SenateYes 1c · No 99c
1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for D-House, D-Senate.
Kalshi’s ruleD-House, D-Senate
If ALL of the following occur: House Control: Democratic, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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