How many House seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 midterms?
The likeliest range is Below 193 at 46%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
Below 193Yes 46c · No 55c
46%193-197Yes 15c · No 86c
15%198-202Yes 14c · No 87c
14%203-207Yes 7c · No 93c
7%208-212Yes 6c · No 94c
6%213-217Yes 4c · No 96c
4%218-222Yes 6c · No 94c
6%4 higher ranges, each under 3%
223-227Yes 2c · No 99c
2%228-232Yes under 1c
<1%233-237Yes under 1c
<1%Above 237Yes 1c · No 99c
1%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Below 193.
Kalshi’s ruleBelow 193
If the Republican Party has below 193 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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