How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 midterms?
The likeliest range is Above 52 at 49%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
3 lower ranges, each under 3%
Below 45Yes 1c · No 99c
1%45Yes 1c · No 99c
1%46Yes 2c · No 98c
2%47Yes 5c · No 96c
5%48Yes 5c · No 95c
5%49Yes 6c · No 94c
6%50Yes 11c · No 90c
11%51Yes 11c · No 90c
11%52Yes 14c · No 87c
14%Above 52Yes 49c · No 52c
49%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Above 52.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 52
If the Democratic Party has above 52 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More election markets.
Which party will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Dec 16, 20269.3M tradedDemocratic Party71%Which party will win the Texas Governor race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 20, 202711.2M tradedRepublican Party63%Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election19 outcomessettles Oct 27, 20278.4M tradedNo one54%Which party will win the Maine Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 202712.4M tradedDemocratic Party68%Which party will win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 20277.8M tradedRepublican Party56%Which party will win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 202712.4M tradedAbdul El-Sayed76%