Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election
No one leads at 54%, followed by Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud) at 20% and Gadi Eizenkot (Yashar) at 19%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
No oneYes 54c · No 47c
54%Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud)Yes 20c · No 81c
20%Gadi Eizenkot (Yashar)Yes 19c · No 82c
19%Naftali Bennett (Together)Yes 5c · No 96c
5%Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)Yes 3c · No 98c
3%Itamar Ben Gvir (Otzma Yehudit)Yes 1c
<1%Amir Ohana (Likud)Yes 1c
<1%Yair Lapid (Together)Yes 1c
<1%Israel Katz (Likud)Yes 1c
<1%Benny Gantz (Blue and White)Yes 1c
<1%Show 9 more outcomes
Yair Golan (The Democrats)Yes 1c
<1%Ayelet ShakedYes 1c
<1%Yoaz Hendel (Reservists, New Economic Party)Yes 1c
<1%Moshe Feiglin (Zehut)Yes 1c
<1%Yossi CohenYes 1c
<1%Yuli EdelsteinYes 1c
<1%Gideon Sa'ar (Likud)Yes 1c
<1%Yariv Levin (Likud)Yes 1c
<1%Nir Barkat (Likud)Yes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for No one.
Kalshi’s ruleNo one
If No one becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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