Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026
The likeliest range is 0 cuts at 98%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
0 cutsYes 98c · No 3c
98%1 cutYes 2c
1%2 cutsYes 2c
1%3 cutsYes 2c · No 99c
2%4 cutsYes 1c
<1%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for 0 cuts.
Kalshi’s rule0 cuts
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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