US real GDP growth in 2026

The likeliest range is 2.1% to 2.5% at 71%, from Kalshi's prices.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of each rangeChance

0 or belowYes 1c

<1%

0.1% to 0.5%Yes 2c

0.6 to 1Yes under 1c

<1%

1.1% to 1.5%Yes 1c

<1%

1.6 to 2Yes 12c · No 89c

12%

2.1% to 2.5%Yes 73c · No 32c

71%

2.6 to 3Yes 8c · No 96c

3.1% to 3.5%Yes 2c

3.6 to 4Yes 1c

<1%

4.1% to 4.5%Yes 1c

<1%

4.6 to 5Yes 1c

<1%

5.1% to 5.5%Yes under 1c

<1%

5.6 to 6Yes under 1c

<1%

6.1 or aboveYes under 1c

<1%

Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.

What settles it.

Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for 2.1% to 2.5%.

Kalshi’s rule2.1% to 2.5%

If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 2.1% to 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

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