Texas crude oil production in 2026
The 50% line sits between Above 5.7 million barrels/day (96%) and Above 5.8 million barrels/day (9%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 5.6 million barrels/dayYes 99c · No 2c
99%Above 5.7 million barrels/dayYes 96c · No 5c
96%Above 5.8 million barrels/dayYes 9c · No 92c
9%Above 5.9 million barrels/dayYes 4c · No 97c
4%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 5.8 million barrels/day.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 5.8 million barrels/day
If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.8 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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