CPI YoY in December 2026
The 50% line sits between 3.9% or above (56%) and 4 or above (42%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
3 or aboveYes 97c · No 4c
97%3.1% or aboveYes 97c · No 6c
96%3.2% or aboveYes 95c · No 6c
95%3.3% or aboveYes 95c · No 6c
95%3.4% or aboveYes 92c · No 10c
91%3.5% or aboveYes 91c · No 19c
86%3.6% or aboveYes 83c · No 28c
78%3.7% or aboveYes 75c · No 56c
70%3.8% or aboveYes 66c · No 56c
No quote3.9% or aboveYes 68c · No 64c
56%4 or aboveYes 42c · No 59c
42%4.1% or aboveYes 33c · No 68c
33%4.2% or aboveYes 28c · No 76c
26%4.3% or aboveYes 19c · No 90c
15%4.4% or aboveYes 16c · No 90c
13%4.5% or aboveYes 9c · No 93c
8%4.6% or aboveYes 8c · No 94c
7%4.7% or aboveYes 8c · No 94c
7%4.8% or aboveYes 8c · No 94c
7%4.9% or aboveYes 5c · No 96c
5%5 or aboveYes 3c · No 98c
3%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for 3.9% or above.
Kalshi’s rule3.9% or above
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.9% in the twelve months ending December 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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