CPI YoY in November 2026
The 50% line sits between 3.8% or above (61%) and 3.9% or above (43%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
5 lower strikes, each above 97%
3 or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%3.1% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%3.2% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%3.3% or aboveYes 98c · No 3c
98%3.4% or aboveYes 98c · No 3c
98%3.5% or aboveYes 95c · No 6c
95%3.6% or aboveYes 90c · No 15c
88%3.7% or aboveYes 82c · No 24c
79%3.8% or aboveYes 62c · No 40c
61%3.9% or aboveYes 44c · No 58c
43%4 or aboveYes 32c · No 69c
32%4.1% or aboveYes 25c · No 76c
25%4.2% or aboveYes 15c · No 88c
14%4.3% or aboveYes 11c · No 91c
10%4.4% or aboveYes 10c · No 96c
7%4.5% or aboveYes 8c · No 94c
7%4.6% or aboveYes 4c · No 98c
3%4 higher strikes, each under 3%
4.7% or aboveYes 3c · No 98c
3%4.8% or aboveYes 3c · No 98c
3%4.9% or aboveYes 2c · No 99c
2%5 or aboveYes 2c · No 99c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for 3.9% or above.
Kalshi’s rule3.9% or above
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.9% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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