Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting
The 50% line sits between 4% or above (71%) and 4.25% or above (3%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
2.75% or aboveNo 1c
>99%3% or aboveNo 1c
>99%3.25% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%3.50% or aboveNo 1c
>99%3.75% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%4% or aboveYes 71c · No 30c
71%4.25% or aboveYes 3c · No 98c
3%4.50% or aboveYes 1c
<1%4.75% or aboveYes 1c
<1%5% or aboveYes 1c
<1%5.25% or aboveYes 1c
<1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for 4% or above.
Kalshi’s rule4% or above
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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