Recession in 2027

Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 19%.

Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.

Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
19%
Yes costs
20c
No costs
82c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.

What settles it.

This market has one rule, shown below.

Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.

More economics markets.

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EVDESK is research and trading software. It is not a broker, not an exchange, not a fund and not investment advice. Prices and chances on this page are read from Kalshi’s public market data at the time shown and move constantly. Prediction-market trading can lose money. See the Risk Disclosure. Not affiliated with Kalshi, Inc.