How high will unemployment get in 2026?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is Above 4.5% at 12%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 4.5%Yes 12c · No 89c
12%Above 4.8%Yes 7c · No 98c
5%Above 5%Yes 7c · No 97c
5%Above 5.5%Yes 5c · No 99c
3%Above 6%Yes 5c · No 99c
3%9 higher strikes, each under 3%
Above 6.5%Yes 3c · No 99c
2%Above 7%Yes 3c · No 99c
2%Above 8%Yes 3c · No 99c
2%Above 9%Yes 3c · No 99c
2%Above 10%Yes 3c · No 99c
2%Above 12%Yes 4c · No 99c
3%Above 15%Yes 5c
3%Above 17%Yes 5c
3%Above 20%Yes 3c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 4.5%.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 4.5%
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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