How high will peak power demand on Texas's ERCOT grid get in 2026?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is Above 91,500 MW at 6%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 91,500 MWYes 6c · No 95c
6%Above 92,000 MWYes 4c · No 97c
4%Above 92,500 MWYes 4c · No 97c
4%Above 93,000 MWYes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 94,000 MWYes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 96,000 MWYes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 98,000 MWYes 2c · No 99c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 91,500 MW.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 91,500 MW
If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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