How high will US gas prices get in 2026?
No strike crosses 50%. The closest is $4.60 or above at 38%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
$4.60 or aboveYes 39c · No 63c
38%$4.80 or aboveYes 31c · No 70c
31%$5 or aboveYes 21c · No 80c
21%$5.20 or aboveYes 14c · No 89c
13%$5.40 or aboveYes 13c · No 89c
12%$5.60 or aboveYes 10c · No 91c
10%$5.80 or aboveYes 9c · No 93c
8%$6 or aboveYes 9c · No 94c
8%$6.20 or aboveYes 7c · No 96c
6%$6.40 or aboveYes 5c · No 97c
4%$6.60 or aboveYes 5c · No 98c
4%$6.80 or aboveYes 4c · No 97c
4%$7 or aboveYes 5c · No 97c
4%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for $4.60 or above.
Kalshi’s rule$4.60 or above
If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.60 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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