Fed decision in Dec 2026
Hike 25bps leads at 70%, followed by Hike 0bps at 29% and Hike >25bps at 3%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Hike 25bpsYes 70c · No 31c
70%Hike 0bpsYes 29c · No 72c
29%Hike >25bpsYes 3c · No 98c
3%Cut 25bpsYes 1c
<1%Cut >25bpsYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Hike 25bps.
Kalshi’s ruleHike 25bps
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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