Fed decision in Jan 2027
Hike 0bps leads at 71%, followed by Hike 25bps at 26% and Hike >25bps at 2%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Hike 0bpsYes 71c · No 30c
71%Hike 25bpsYes 26c · No 75c
26%Hike >25bpsYes 3c · No 99c
2%Cut 25bpsYes 2c · No 99c
2%Cut >25bpsYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Hike 0bps.
Kalshi’s ruleHike 0bps
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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