US gas prices on Election Day
The 50% line sits between Above $4.15 (67%) and Above $4.20 (15%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
8 lower strikes, each above 97%
Above $2.50No 1c
>99%Above $2.75No 1c
>99%Above $3No 1c
>99%Above $3.25No 1c
>99%Above $3.50No 1c
>99%Above $3.75No 1c
>99%Above $4No 1c
>99%Above $4.05Yes 99c · No 4c
98%Above $4.10Yes 99c · No 5c
97%Above $4.15Yes 74c · No 40c
67%Above $4.20Yes 19c · No 90c
15%Above $4.25Yes 5c · No 96c
5%5 higher strikes, each under 3%
Above $4.30Yes 5c
3%Above $4.35Yes 5c
3%Above $4.50Yes 1c
<1%Above $4.75Yes 1c
<1%Above $5Yes 1c
<1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above $4.15.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove $4.15
If average regular gas prices for the United States are strictly greater than $4.15 on Nov 3, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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