Number of rate hikes in 2026
The likeliest range is Exactly 2 at 71%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
Exactly 1Yes 30c · No 71c
30%Exactly 2Yes 71c · No 30c
71%Exactly 3Yes 2c · No 99c
2%At least 4Yes 3c
2%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for Exactly 2.
Kalshi’s ruleExactly 2
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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