Core CPI YoY in November 2026
The 50% line sits between 2.8% or above (56%) and 2.9% or above (32%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
6 lower strikes, each above 97%
2 or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%2.1% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%2.2% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%2.3% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%2.4% or aboveYes 99c · No 2c
99%2.5% or aboveYes 99c · No 4c
98%2.6% or aboveYes 93c · No 15c
89%2.7% or aboveYes 85c · No 32c
77%2.8% or aboveYes 60c · No 49c
56%2.9% or aboveYes 34c · No 70c
32%3 or aboveYes 17c · No 94c
12%3.1% or aboveYes 9c · No 95c
7%3.2% or aboveYes 5c · No 99c
3%3 higher strikes, each under 3%
3.3% or aboveYes 4c · No 99c
3%3.4% or aboveYes 3c · No 99c
2%3.5% or aboveYes 2c · No 99c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for 2.8% or above.
Kalshi’s rule2.8% or above
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.8% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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