Number of rate cuts in 2026
The likeliest range is 0 bps at 96%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each rangeChance
0 bpsYes 96c · No 4c
96%1 (25 bps)Yes 2c · No 98c
2%2 (50 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%3 (75 bps)No offers in the book
No quote4 (100 bps)Yes 1c
<1%125 bpsNo offers in the book
No quote6 (150 bps)No offers in the book
No quote175 bpsYes under 1c
<1%8 (200 bps)No offers in the book
No quote12 higher ranges, each under 3%
9 (225 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%10 (250 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%11 (275 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%12 (300 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%13 (325 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%14 (350 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%15 (375 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%16 (400 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%17 (425 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%18 (450 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%19 (475 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%20 (500 bps)Yes under 1c
<1%Each range is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the ranges can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Every range uses the same rule with its own numbers in it. The rule below is for 0 bps.
Kalshi’s rule0 bps
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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