Oil Price (WTI) on Election Day (November 3, 2026)
The 50% line sits between $103 or above (53%) and $104 or above (42%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
52 lower strikes, each above 97%
Above $57.99No 1c
>99%Above $58.49No 1c
>99%Above $58.99No 1c
>99%Above $59.49No 1c
>99%Above $59.99No 1c
>99%Above $60.49No 1c
>99%Above $60.99No 1c
>99%Above $61.49No 1c
>99%Above $61.99No 1c
>99%Above $62.49No 1c
>99%Above $62.99No 1c
>99%Above $63.49No 1c
>99%Above $63.99No 1c
>99%Above $64.49No 1c
>99%Above $64.99No 1c
>99%Above $65.49No 1c
>99%Above $65.99No 1c
>99%Above $66.49No 1c
>99%Above $66.99No 1c
>99%Above $67.49No 1c
>99%Above $67.99No 1c
>99%Above $68.49No 1c
>99%Above $68.99No 1c
>99%Above $69.49No 1c
>99%Above $69.99No 1c
>99%Above $70.49No 1c
>99%Above $70.99No 1c
>99%Above $71.49No 1c
>99%Above $71.99No 1c
>99%Above $72.49No 1c
>99%$73 or aboveNo 3c
99%$74 or aboveNo 3c
99%$75 or aboveNo 1c
>99%$76 or aboveNo 4c
98%$77 or aboveNo 3c
99%$78 or aboveNo 3c
99%$79 or aboveNo 2c
99%$80 or aboveNo 2c
99%$81 or aboveNo 3c
99%$82 or aboveNo 4c
98%$83 or aboveNo 3c
99%$84 or aboveNo 3c
99%$85 or aboveNo 4c
98%$86 or aboveNo 3c
99%$87 or aboveNo 4c
98%$88 or aboveNo 3c
99%$89 or aboveNo 3c
99%$90 or aboveNo 4c
98%$91 or aboveNo 3c
99%$92 or aboveYes 99c · No 4c
98%$93 or aboveYes 99c · No 3c
98%$94 or aboveYes 99c · No 3c
98%$95 or aboveYes 98c · No 5c
97%$96 or aboveYes 94c · No 7c
94%$97 or aboveYes 93c · No 10c
92%$98 or aboveYes 90c · No 12c
89%$99 or aboveYes 85c · No 18c
84%$100 or aboveYes 79c · No 23c
78%$101 or aboveYes 72c · No 30c
71%$102 or aboveYes 64c · No 39c
63%$103 or aboveYes 54c · No 48c
53%$104 or aboveYes 43c · No 60c
42%$105 or aboveYes 34c · No 69c
33%$106 or aboveYes 25c · No 78c
24%$107 or aboveYes 20c · No 81c
20%$108 or aboveYes 14c · No 87c
14%$109 or aboveYes 9c · No 94c
8%$110 or aboveYes 7c · No 97c
5%$111 or aboveYes 5c · No 96c
5%$112 or aboveYes 5c · No 96c
5%$113 or aboveYes 3c · No 98c
3%$114 or aboveYes 4c · No 98c
3%$115 or aboveYes 4c · No 98c
3%$116 or aboveYes 4c · No 99c
3%$117 or aboveYes 3c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for $103 or above.
Kalshi’s rule$103 or above
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on November 03, 2026 is above $102.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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