Texas Governor-Senate combo, Nov 3, 2026
Greg Abbott and James Talarico win leads at 40%, followed by Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico win at 37% and Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton win at 28%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Greg Abbott and James Talarico winYes 40c · No 61c
40%Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico winYes 37c · No 64c
37%Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton winYes 28c · No 73c
28%Gina Hinojosa and Ken Paxton winYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Greg Abbott and James Talarico win.
Kalshi’s ruleGreg Abbott and James Talarico win
If ALL of the following occur: Texas Governor winner: Republican party, Texas Senate winner: Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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