Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Zohran Mamdani leads at 31%, followed by Pope Leo XIV at 18% and Mark Carney at 17%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Zohran MamdaniYes 31c · No 70c
31%Pope Leo XIVYes 18c · No 83c
18%Mark CarneyYes 17c · No 84c
17%Donald TrumpYes 11c · No 92c
10%Dario AmodeiYes 8c · No 93c
8%AIYes 8c · No 94c
7%James TalaricoYes 8c · No 94c
7%Elon MuskYes 7c · No 94c
7%Marco RubioYes 6c · No 95c
6%Sam AltmanYes 5c · No 96c
5%Show 32 more outcomes
Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafYes 5c · No 96c
5%Christina KochYes 5c · No 96c
5%Victor GloverYes 5c · No 96c
5%Bad BunnyYes 4c · No 97c
4%ChatGPTYes 4c · No 97c
4%Mojtaba KhameneiYes 4c · No 97c
4%Reid WisemanYes 4c · No 97c
4%Xi JinpingYes 4c · No 97c
4%Jeremy HansenYes 4c · No 97c
4%Abdul El-SayedYes 4c · No 97c
4%Lionel MessiYes 4c · No 98c
3%Shehbaz SharifYes 4c · No 98c
3%Benjamin NetanyahuYes 3c · No 98c
3%Jerome PowellYes 3c · No 98c
3%Bernie SandersYes 3c · No 98c
3%Alysa LiuYes 3c · No 98c
3%Péter MagyarYes 3c · No 98c
3%Jon OssoffYes 3c · No 98c
3%Alexandria Ocasio-CortezYes 3c · No 98c
3%James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeastYes 3c · No 98c
3%Pete HegsethYes 3c · No 98c
3%Taylor SwiftYes 3c · No 99c
2%Susie WilesYes 3c · No 99c
2%Christopher NolanYes 2c · No 99c
2%Chris WrightYes 2c · No 99c
2%JD VanceYes 2c
1%Hakeem JeffriesYes 2c
1%Jared KushnerYes 2c
1%Erika KirkYes 2c
1%Steve WitkoffYes 2c
1%Andy BurnhamYes 2c
1%Kevin WarshYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Zohran Mamdani.
Kalshi’s ruleZohran Mamdani
If Zohran Mamdani is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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