Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Central African Republic leads at 56%, followed by Tanzania at 39% and South Sudan at 38%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Central African RepublicYes 57c · No 46c
56%TanzaniaYes 42c · No 64c
39%South SudanYes 39c · No 63c
38%EthiopiaYes 26c · No 75c
26%Republic of the CongoYes 24c · No 79c
23%RwandaYes 25c · No 82c
22%SomaliaYes 20c · No 81c
20%BurundiYes 22c · No 83c
20%United Arab EmiratesYes 18c · No 87c
16%United StatesYes 14c · No 87c
14%Show 7 more outcomes
IndiaYes 14c · No 87c
14%ItalyYes 14c · No 88c
13%AngolaYes 13c · No 92c
11%ZambiaYes 9c · No 92c
9%CanadaYes 7c · No 94c
7%ThailandYes 7c · No 94c
7%ChinaYes 5c · No 96c
5%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Central African Republic.
Kalshi’s ruleCentral African Republic
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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