Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model in 2026?
OpenAI leads at 15%, followed by XAI and Meta at 7% each, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
OpenAIYes 17c · No 87c
15%XAIYes 8c · No 94c
7%MetaYes 8c · No 94c
7%DeepseekYes 4c · No 97c
4%BaiduYes 5c · No 98c
4%Z.aiYes 5c · No 98c
4%AlibabaYes 4c · No 98c
3%ByteDanceYes 4c · No 98c
3%MistralYes 4c · No 98c
3%NvidiaYes 3c · No 98c
3%Show 2 more outcomes
Moonshot AIYes 4c · No 99c
3%01A1Yes 4c · No 99c
3%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for OpenAI.
Kalshi’s ruleOpenAI
If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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