How many launches will SpaceX have in October 2026?
The 50% line sits between Above 10 (91%) and Above 11 (2%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 6No 1c
>99%Above 7No 1c
>99%Above 8No 1c
>99%Above 9Yes 99c · No 2c
99%Above 10Yes 92c · No 11c
91%Above 11Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Above 12Yes 1c
<1%Above 13Yes 1c
<1%Above 14Yes 1c
<1%Above 15Yes 1c
<1%Above 16Yes 1c
<1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 10.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 10
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in Oct 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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