Measles cases in 2026
The 50% line sits between Above 6,000 (80%) and Above 7,000 (37%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 5,000No 3c
99%Above 6,000Yes 81c · No 21c
80%Above 7,000Yes 43c · No 69c
37%Above 8,000Yes 18c · No 83c
18%Above 9,000Yes 15c · No 99c
8%Above 10,000Yes 8c · No 93c
8%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 7,000.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 7,000
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 7000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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