How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
The 50% line sits between Above 140 (66%) and Above 145 (22%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 120Yes 99c · No 2c
99%Above 140Yes 68c · No 36c
66%Above 145Yes 23c · No 79c
22%Above 150Yes 6c · No 95c
6%Above 160Yes 5c · No 96c
5%Above 170Yes 4c · No 97c
4%4 higher strikes, each under 3%
Above 180Yes 3c · No 98c
3%Above 190Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Above 200Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Above 210Yes 2c · No 99c
2%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 140.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 140
If SpaceX has more than 140 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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