When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Kalshi's prices put Before Dec 31, 2026 at 7% and Before 2030 at 66%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Dec 31, 2026Yes 7c · No 94c
7%Before Dec 31, 2027Yes 43c · No 60c
42%Before 2030Yes 68c · No 37c
66%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before 2030.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore 2030
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More science and technology markets.
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027Yes or Nosettles Dec 31, 2026838,100 tradedYes4%Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?9 outcomessettles Dec 31, 20261.2M tradedAnthropic80%How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?10 outcomessettles Dec 31, 2026782,194 tradedAbove 14066%Will WHO declare a hantavirus public health emergency in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Dec 31, 20262.0M tradedYes2%Which AI model will rank best at the end of October 2026?7 outcomessettles Oct 31, 2026771,724 tradedGemini (Google)>99%Which AI model will rank best at the end of 2026?8 outcomessettles Dec 31, 202616.2M tradedGemini (Google)56%