Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
Anthropic leads at 80%, followed by OpenAI at 11% and Google at 6%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
AnthropicYes 81c · No 21c
80%OpenAIYes 11c · No 90c
11%GoogleYes 6c · No 95c
6%XAIYes 3c · No 98c
3%DeepSeekYes 2c
1%Moonshot AIYes 1c
<1%Z.aiYes 1c
<1%AlibabaYes 1c
<1%BaiduYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Anthropic.
Kalshi’s ruleAnthropic
If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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