Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Kalshi's prices put Before Nov 1, 2026 at <1% and Before Jan 20, 2029 at 24%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Nov 1, 2026Yes 1c
<1%Before Dec 1, 2026Yes 3c · No 98c
3%Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 5c · No 95c
5%Before Jan 1, 2028Yes 16c · No 85c
16%Before Jan 20, 2029Yes 24c · No 77c
24%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before Jan 20, 2029.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore Jan 20, 2029
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More science and technology markets.
Which AI model will rank best at the end of 2026?8 outcomessettles Dec 31, 202616.2M tradedGemini (Google)56%Will WHO declare a hantavirus public health emergency in 2026?Yes or Nosettles Dec 31, 20262.0M tradedYes2%Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?9 outcomessettles Dec 31, 20261.2M tradedAnthropic80%When will OpenAI achieve AGI?3 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2030877,387 tradedBefore 203066%US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027Yes or Nosettles Dec 31, 2026838,100 tradedYes4%How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?10 outcomessettles Dec 31, 2026782,194 tradedAbove 14066%