Which AI model will rank best at the end of 2026?
Gemini (Google) leads at 56%, followed by Claude (Anthropic) at 36% and ChatGPT (OpenAI) at 6%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Gemini (Google)Yes 56c · No 44c
56%Claude (Anthropic)Yes 36c · No 64c
36%ChatGPT (OpenAI)Yes 6c · No 94c
6%Grok (xAI)Yes 2c · No 98c
2%LLaMA (Meta)Yes 1c · No 99c
1%Qwen (Alibaba)Yes 1c
<1%Kimi (Moonshot)Yes 1c
<1%Ernie (Baidu)Yes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Gemini (Google).
Kalshi’s ruleGemini (Google)
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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