What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
The 50% line sits between Above 4.4 million (84%) and Above 4.5 million (<1%), from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes at each strikeChance
Above 4.1 millionNo 1c
>99%Above 4.2 millionNo 1c
>99%Above 4.3 millionYes 99c · No 2c
99%Above 4.4 millionYes 84c · No 17c
84%Above 4.5 millionYes 1c
<1%Each strike is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Strikes run low to high.
What settles it.
Every strike uses the same rule with its own number in it. The rule below is for Above 4.4 million.
Kalshi’s ruleAbove 4.4 million
If NYC subway average weekday ridership (the mean of the MTA's daily subway ridership figures for every Monday through Friday, holidays included) as published in its Daily Ridership and Traffic series is above 4.4 million in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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