Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ted Cruz leads at 79%, followed by J.D. Vance at 77% and Ron DeSantis at 66%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Ted CruzYes 81c · No 24c
79%J.D. VanceYes 78c · No 25c
77%Ron DeSantisYes 67c · No 36c
66%Marco RubioYes 56c · No 45c
56%Rand PaulYes 55c · No 53c
51%Thomas MassieYes 51c · No 55c
48%Glenn YoungkinYes 39c · No 66c
37%Chris ChristieYes 39c · No 68c
36%Brian KempYes 36c · No 68c
34%Tulsi GabbardYes 33c · No 74c
30%Show 28 more outcomes
Pete HegsethYes 30c · No 73c
29%Gregory BovinoYes 31c · No 75c
28%Vivek RamaswamyYes 27c · No 75c
26%John McEnteeYes 29c · No 78c
26%Doug BurgumYes 30c · No 79c
26%Tucker CarlsonYes 26c · No 76c
25%Donald J. Trump Jr.Yes 26c · No 76c
25%Sarah Huckabee SandersYes 27c · No 79c
24%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Yes 26c · No 79c
24%Nikki HaleyYes 23c · No 79c
22%Steve BannonYes 23c · No 79c
22%Byron DonaldsYes 23c · No 83c
20%John KennedyYes 22c · No 86c
18%Marjorie Taylor GreeneYes 19c · No 85c
17%Greg AbbottYes 17c · No 86c
16%Jeff BezosYes 17c · No 87c
15%Josh HawleyYes 17c · No 88c
15%Spencer PrattYes 16c · No 87c
15%Elise StefanikYes 15c · No 87c
14%Jared KushnerYes 14c · No 90c
12%Larry HoganYes 16c · No 92c
12%Katie BrittYes 14c · No 91c
12%Tim ScottYes 16c · No 93c
12%Donald J. TrumpYes 12c · No 91c
11%Erika KirkYes 12c · No 94c
9%John ThuneYes 8c · No 96c
6%Matt GaetzYes 5c · No 96c
5%Elon MuskYes 4c · No 99c
3%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Ted Cruz.
Kalshi’s ruleTed Cruz
If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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