Texas Senate: Exact outcome before Jan 2027
Talarico defeats Paxton is at 73% and Paxton defeats Talarico at 28%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Talarico defeats PaxtonYes costs 73c73%
Paxton defeats TalaricoYes costs 28c28%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Talarico defeats Paxton.
Kalshi’s ruleTalarico defeats Paxton
If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
More election markets.
Which party will win the NC-01 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027576,621 tradedDemocratic Party86%Which party will win the Michigan Governor race in 2026?3 outcomessettles Jan 1, 2027593,121 tradedDemocratic Party94%Which party will win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?3 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027576,366 tradedRepublican Party95%2028 Presidential Election winner (party)2 outcomessettles Jan 21, 2029617,667 tradedDemocratic Party61%Which party will win the Oregon Governor race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 9, 2027563,283 tradedDemocratic Party80%Who will win the NC-11 House race in 2026?2 outcomessettles Jan 4, 2027640,004 tradedDemocratic Party87%