Who will win the CA-11 House race in 2026?
Scott Wiener is at 81% and Connie Chan at 21%, from Kalshi's prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance to win, from Kalshi’s prices
Scott WienerYes costs 81c81%
Connie ChanYes costs 21c21%
Each side is its own Kalshi market. Each chance is that market’s midpoint, so the two can add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
What settles it.
Each side has its own market. Both use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Scott Wiener.
Kalshi’s ruleScott Wiener
If Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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