2028 Presidential matchup
Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance and AOC v. JD Vance lead at 13% each, followed by Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance at 9%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Gavin Newsom v. JD VanceYes 14c · No 88c
13%AOC v. JD VanceYes 14c · No 88c
13%Jon Ossoff v. JD VanceYes 9c · No 91c
9%AOC v. Marco RubioYes 7c · No 94c
7%Kamala Harris v. JD VanceYes 4c · No 96c
4%Jon Ossoff v. Marco RubioYes 5c · No 97c
4%Gavin Newsom v. Marco RubioYes 5c · No 99c
3%Kamala Harris v. Marco RubioYes 2c · No 99c
2%Josh Shapiro v. Marco RubioYes 3c
2%Josh Shapiro v. JD VanceYes 2c · No 99c
2%Show 6 more outcomes
James Talarico v. Marco RubioYes 2c · No 99c
2%Andy Beshear v. JD VanceYes 2c
1%Andy Beshear v. Marco RubioYes 1c · No 99c
1%James Talarico v. JD VanceYes 2c
1%Pete Buttigieg v. Marco RubioYes 1c
<1%Pete Buttigieg v. JD VanceYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance.
Kalshi’s ruleGavin Newsom v. JD Vance
If Gavin Newsom (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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