Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before 2027?
Gemini leads at 42%, followed by Claude at 13% and ChatGPT at 5%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
GeminiYes 44c · No 60c
42%ClaudeYes 13c · No 88c
13%ChatGPTYes 5c · No 96c
5%GrokYes 2c · No 99c
2%OtherYes 1c
<1%QwenYes 1c
<1%KimiYes 1c
<1%ErnieYes 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Gemini.
Kalshi’s ruleGemini
If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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