Which companies will the US take a stake in before Jan 1, 2027?
Unusual Machines leads at 26%, followed by Neros Technologies at 19% and Anduril at 18%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Unusual MachinesYes 28c · No 76c
26%Neros TechnologiesYes 21c · No 83c
19%AndurilYes 18c · No 83c
18%Eli LillyYes 13c · No 91c
11%OpenAIYes 12c · No 91c
11%AnthropicYes 10c · No 93c
9%PalantirYes 9c · No 92c
9%Lockheed MartinYes 10c · No 93c
9%TSMCYes 10c · No 93c
9%Performance Drone WorksYes 11c · No 94c
9%Show 8 more outcomes
NvidiaYes 9c · No 94c
8%MicronYes 8c · No 94c
7%PfizerYes 7c · No 94c
7%Freeport-McMoRanYes 8c · No 95c
7%TikTok USYes 8c · No 96c
6%BoeingYes 7c · No 96c
6%IonQYes 5c · No 97c
4%Spirit AirlinesYes 4c · No 98c
3%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Unusual Machines.
Kalshi’s ruleUnusual Machines
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Unusual Machines before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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