Will OpenAI or Anthropic go public first?
Anthropic leads at 99%, followed by OpenAI at 5%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
AnthropicYes 99c · No 2c
99%OpenAIYes 6c · No 96c
5%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Anthropic.
Kalshi’s ruleAnthropic
If Anthropic confirms an IPO first, before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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