When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
Kalshi's prices put Before Nov 1, 2026 at 1% and Before 2028 at 72%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance by each dateChance
Before Nov 1, 2026Yes 2c
1%Before Dec 1, 2026Yes 16c · No 85c
16%Before Jan 1, 2027Yes 24c · No 78c
23%Before Feb 1, 2027Yes 35c · No 66c
35%Before Mar 1, 2027Yes 40c · No 61c
40%Before Apr 1, 2027Yes 47c · No 54c
47%Before May 1, 2027Yes 60c · No 41c
60%Before 2028Yes 72c · No 29c
72%Each date is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer. Dates run earliest to latest.
What settles it.
Every date uses the same rule with its own deadline in it. The rule below is for Before 2028.
Kalshi’s ruleBefore 2028
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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