Who will have a top 10 song in 2026?
Mariah Carey leads at 98%, followed by Michael Jackson at 97% and Post Malone at 82%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Mariah CareyYes 99c · No 4c
98%Michael JacksonYes 97c · No 4c
97%Post MaloneYes 86c · No 22c
82%Kendrick LamarYes 47c · No 61c
43%Lil BabyYes 38c · No 71c
34%SZAYes 35c · No 72c
32%The WeekndYes 32c · No 69c
32%Tyler, The CreatorYes 47c · No 91c
30%Lady GagaYes 31c · No 77c
27%Sabrina CarpenterYes 27c · No 81c
23%Show 92 more outcomes
DoechiiYes 24c · No 83c
21%Travis ScottYes 28c · No 88c
20%Billie EilishYes 23c · No 85c
19%SIENNA SPIROYes 26c · No 88c
19%Megan Thee StallionYes 22c · No 87c
18%KATSEYEYes 21c · No 87c
17%RihannaYes 19c · No 86c
17%Central CeeYes 18c · No 86c
16%Lil Uzi VertYes 20c · No 89c
16%Benson BooneYes 16c · No 87c
15%Nicki MinajYes 18c · No 91c
14%Luke CombsYes 17c · No 91c
13%21 SavageYes 22c · No 96c
13%ShaboozeyYes 17c · No 92c
13%Ed SheeranYes 17c · No 92c
13%EminemYes 14c · No 90c
12%PARTYNEXTDOORYes 16c · No 92c
12%Lil WayneYes 13c · No 90c
12%Kanye West / YeYes 12c · No 90c
11%John MayerYes 15c · No 94c
11%Lil Nas XYes 15c · No 94c
11%Doja CatYes 14c · No 93c
11%JojiYes 11c · No 91c
10%Gracie AbramsYes 11c · No 93c
9%Stray KidsYes 10c · No 92c
9%Dua LipaYes 15c · No 97c
9%MigosYes 13c · No 95c
9%Fred again..Yes 9c · No 92c
9%Kali UchisYes 13c · No 96c
9%TylaYes 9c · No 93c
8%Addison RaeYes 9c · No 93c
8%Polo GYes 12c · No 96c
8%David GuettaYes 10c · No 94c
8%YeatYes 9c · No 94c
8%YoungBoy Never Broke AgainYes 10c · No 95c
8%A$AP RockyYes 10c · No 96c
7%Roddy RicchYes 9c · No 95c
7%Young ThugYes 11c · No 97c
7%Rauw AlejandroYes 9c · No 95c
7%Sam SmithYes 10c · No 96c
7%OffsetYes 9c · No 95c
7%ColdplayYes 10c · No 96c
7%Charli xcxYes 7c · No 94c
7%Chris BrownYes 7c · No 94c
7%Childish GambinoYes 8c · No 95c
7%Justin TimberlakeYes 7c · No 95c
6%Lola YoungYes 8c · No 96c
6%Jason DeruloYes 9c · No 97c
6%OzunaYes 10c · No 98c
6%J BalvinYes 7c · No 95c
6%Kid CudiYes 9c · No 98c
6%SiaYes 9c · No 98c
6%Daft PunkYes 9c · No 98c
6%J. ColeYes 7c · No 97c
5%ROSALÍAYes 8c · No 98c
5%Pharrell WilliamsYes 7c · No 97c
5%Bebe RexhaYes 6c · No 96c
5%Lil YachtyYes 6c · No 96c
5%Kodak BlackYes 8c · No 98c
5%CamiloYes 8c · No 98c
5%The Kid LAROIYes 5c · No 96c
5%Charlie PuthYes 7c · No 98c
5%2 ChainzYes 7c · No 98c
5%Trippie ReddYes 7c · No 98c
5%ClairoYes 5c · No 96c
5%The MaríasYes 6c · No 97c
5%Ice SpiceYes 6c · No 97c
5%NFYes 7c · No 98c
5%USHERYes 8c · No 99c
5%Frank OceanYes 5c · No 96c
5%BLACKPINKYes 5c · No 97c
4%MgkYes 6c · No 98c
4%Maroon 5Yes 5c · No 97c
4%Linkin ParkYes 7c · No 99c
4%LogicYes 7c · No 99c
4%Bryson TillerYes 7c · No 99c
4%QuavoYes 6c · No 99c
4%GrimesYes 6c · No 99c
4%Big SeanYes 6c · No 99c
4%Shawn MendesYes 5c · No 98c
4%Anuel AAYes 6c · No 99c
4%Dolly PartonYes 5c · No 99c
3%Lewis CapaldiYes 5c · No 99c
3%GeeseYes 5c · No 99c
3%Swae LeeYes 5c · No 99c
3%Fall Out BoyYes 5c · No 99c
3%Daniel CaesarYes 5c · No 99c
3%KhalidYes 5c · No 99c
3%EsDeeKidYes 3c · No 98c
3%Calvin HarrisYes 4c · No 99c
3%TygaYes 4c · No 99c
3%BeyoncéYes 65c · No 95c
No quoteEach outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Mariah Carey.
Kalshi’s ruleMariah Carey
If Mariah Carey has a top 10 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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