Who will have a #1 hit in 2026?
Mariah Carey leads at 94%, followed by Morgan Wallen at 32% and Tate McRae at 22%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Mariah CareyYes 95c · No 7c
94%Morgan WallenYes 37c · No 73c
32%Tate McRaeYes 24c · No 81c
22%Kendrick LamarYes 20c · No 86c
17%BeyoncéYes 19c · No 86c
17%Sabrina CarpenterYes 18c · No 85c
17%Travis ScottYes 17c · No 87c
15%Chappell RoanYes 15c · No 86c
15%Post MaloneYes 16c · No 88c
14%SZAYes 14c · No 89c
13%Show 105 more outcomes
Olivia DeanYes 12c · No 90c
11%Lana Del ReyYes 13c · No 92c
11%Billie EilishYes 10c · No 92c
9%Lady GagaYes 12c · No 94c
9%FutureYes 10c · No 94c
8%Don ToliverYes 8c · No 93c
8%Nicki MinajYes 8c · No 94c
7%The WeekndYes 8c · No 95c
7%KAROL GYes 8c · No 95c
7%Luke CombsYes 8c · No 95c
7%Justin BieberYes 9c · No 96c
7%Tyler, The CreatorYes 7c · No 95c
6%SombrYes 7c · No 95c
6%KATSEYEYes 7c · No 96c
6%Frank OceanYes 7c · No 96c
6%Megan Thee StallionYes 8c · No 97c
6%Young ThugYes 7c · No 96c
6%SIENNA SPIROYes 7c · No 96c
6%Lil BabyYes 7c · No 96c
6%Tame ImpalaYes 9c · No 98c
6%Selena GomezYes 9c · No 98c
6%DoechiiYes 6c · No 96c
5%Gracie AbramsYes 6c · No 97c
5%Lil WayneYes 6c · No 97c
5%RihannaYes 6c · No 97c
5%Dua LipaYes 6c · No 97c
5%Alex WarrenYes 7c · No 98c
5%J BalvinYes 6c · No 97c
5%Pharrell WilliamsYes 6c · No 97c
5%Chris BrownYes 5c · No 97c
4%PinkPantheressYes 5c · No 97c
4%Shawn MendesYes 6c · No 98c
4%Lil Uzi VertYes 5c · No 97c
4%David GuettaYes 6c · No 98c
4%21 SavageYes 6c · No 98c
4%Zara LarssonYes 4c · No 97c
4%Doja CatYes 5c · No 98c
4%Ed SheeranYes 4c · No 97c
4%ShaboozeyYes 4c · No 97c
4%KhalidYes 6c · No 99c
4%ColdplayYes 5c · No 98c
4%Ice SpiceYes 5c · No 98c
4%Addison RaeYes 5c · No 98c
4%Polo GYes 6c · No 99c
4%MigosYes 6c · No 99c
4%PARTYNEXTDOORYes 5c · No 98c
4%Stray KidsYes 4c · No 98c
3%MgkYes 4c · No 98c
3%Charlie PuthYes 4c · No 98c
3%Calvin HarrisYes 4c · No 98c
3%Sam SmithYes 5c · No 99c
3%Rauw AlejandroYes 5c · No 99c
3%Fred again..Yes 4c · No 98c
3%USHERYes 4c · No 98c
3%John MayerYes 4c · No 98c
3%EminemYes 4c · No 98c
3%The Kid LAROIYes 4c · No 98c
3%CamiloYes 5c · No 99c
3%Lola YoungYes 4c · No 98c
3%Jason DeruloYes 5c · No 99c
3%OffsetYes 5c · No 99c
3%Kodak BlackYes 5c · No 99c
3%Daniel CaesarYes 4c · No 98c
3%J. ColeYes 4c · No 99c
3%Zach BryanYes 3c · No 98c
3%Charli xcxYes 4c · No 99c
3%JojiYes 3c · No 98c
3%Benson BooneYes 4c · No 99c
3%BLACKPINKYes 3c · No 98c
3%TylaYes 3c · No 98c
3%EsDeeKidYes 4c · No 99c
3%Daft PunkYes 4c · No 99c
3%Big SeanYes 4c · No 99c
3%ROSALÍAYes 4c · No 99c
3%Justin TimberlakeYes 4c · No 99c
3%Kanye West / YeYes 3c · No 99c
2%Leon ThomasYes 3c · No 99c
2%Bebe RexhaYes 3c · No 99c
2%NFYes 3c · No 99c
2%Lil YachtyYes 3c · No 99c
2%TygaYes 3c · No 99c
2%OzunaYes 3c · No 99c
2%Roddy RicchYes 3c · No 99c
2%Bryson TillerYes 3c · No 99c
2%SiaYes 2c · No 99c
2%Swae LeeYes 2c · No 99c
2%Linkin ParkYes 2c · No 99c
2%YoungBoy Never Broke AgainYes 2c · No 99c
2%Lewis CapaldiYes 2c · No 99c
2%The MaríasYes 2c · No 99c
2%Anuel AAYes 2c · No 99c
2%LogicYes 3c
2%QuavoYes 2c · No 99c
2%2 ChainzYes 2c · No 99c
2%Kali UchisYes 2c · No 99c
2%Childish GambinoYes 2c · No 99c
2%Lil Nas XYes 2c · No 99c
2%Kid CudiYes 2c · No 99c
2%GeeseYes 2c
1%Fall Out BoyYes 2c
1%ClairoYes 2c
1%GrimesYes 2c
1%Maroon 5Yes 2c
1%Trippie ReddYes 2c
1%Michael JacksonYes 97c · No 98c
No quoteEach outcome is its own Kalshi market and more than one can settle Yes. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Mariah Carey.
Kalshi’s ruleMariah Carey
If Mariah Carey has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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