Next French presidential election winner in 2027
Marine Le Pen leads at 44%, followed by Édouard Philippe (Horizons) at 16% and David Lisnard at 15%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
Marine Le PenYes 44c · No 57c
44%Édouard Philippe (Horizons)Yes 16c · No 85c
16%David LisnardYes 15c · No 86c
15%Jean-Luc MélenchonYes 9c · No 91c
9%Christine LagardeYes 6c · No 95c
6%Raphaël GlucksmannYes 5c · No 96c
5%François HollandeYes 4c · No 97c
4%Jordan BardellaYes 1c · No 99c
1%Sarah KnafoYes 1c · No 99c
1%Bruno RetailleauYes 1c · No 99c
1%Show 20 more outcomes
Gabriel AttalYes 1c
<1%Éric ZemmourYes 1c
<1%Dominique de VillepinYes 1c
<1%François BayrouYes under 1c
<1%Jean CastexYes under 1c
<1%Gérald DarmaninYes under 1c
<1%Yaël Braun-PivetYes under 1c
<1%Olivier FaureYes under 1c
<1%Valérie PécresseYes under 1c
<1%Laurent WauquiezYes under 1c
<1%Michel BarnierYes under 1c
<1%Carole DelgaYes under 1c
<1%Manuel BompardYes under 1c
<1%Xavier BertrandYes under 1c
<1%Élisabeth BorneYes under 1c
<1%Bruno Le MaireYes under 1c
<1%Bernard CazeneuveYes under 1c
<1%Mathilde PanotYes under 1c
<1%Sébastien LecornuYes under 1c
<1%François RuffinYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for Marine Le Pen.
Kalshi’s ruleMarine Le Pen
If Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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