Which party will win the next UK general election?
The Labour party leads at 36%, followed by Reform party at 28% and Conservative party at 15%, from Kalshi’s prices.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of each outcomeChance
The Labour partyYes 37c · No 65c
36%Reform partyYes 29c · No 74c
28%Conservative partyYes 21c · No 92c
15%Restore Britain partyYes 6c · No 98c
4%Green PartyYes 3c
2%Liberal Democratic PartyYes 2c
1%Your PartyYes 1c
<1%Bruv partyYes under 1c
<1%Each outcome is its own Kalshi market. The chance is the midpoint of its best bid and offer, so the chances can add up to more than 100%.
What settles it.
Each outcome has its own market. All use the same rule, each with its own name in it. The rule below is for The Labour party.
Kalshi’s ruleThe Labour party
If Labour receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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