Will the Citrini scenario happen before July 2028?
Kalshi's prices put the chance of Yes at 18%.
Chances and prices from Kalshi’s public order book at Oct 30, 2026, 4:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
Chance of Yes, from Kalshi’s pricesYes or No market
18%
- Yes costs
- 18c
- No costs
- 83c
A Yes contract pays $1 if the market settles Yes and nothing if it settles No. The chance is the midpoint of the best bid and offer in Kalshi’s public order book.
What settles it.
This market has one rule, shown below.
Kalshi’s ruleYes or No
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi’s published market rules. Kalshi decides how every market settles. How Kalshi settlement works.
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